Economic Survey 2016: Highlights

Highlights of Economic Survey 2015—16, tabled in Parliament today
* GDP growth next fiscal to be between 7-7.75%
* Growth this fiscal to be 7.6%, long-term potential at 8-10% if exports grow rapidly
* India haven of stability amidst gloomy global landscape
* Crude oil prices to be about USD 35 a barrel next fiscal, as against USD 45 this year
* Projects retail inflation at 4.5-5% for 2016-17
* Low inflation takes hold, price stability has increased
* Pay Commission implementation not to destabilise prices
* Proposes widening of tax net from 5.5% of earning individuals to more than 20%
* Challenging external environment to cast shadow on economic policies
* 3.9% fiscal deficit target achievable this year, coming year to be challenging
* Subsidy bill to be below 2% of GDP next fiscal
* Concerned over delay in GST Bill
* Balance sheets of corporate, banks remain stressed; need 4Rs: Recognition, Recapitalisation, Resolution and Reform
* PSU banks’ capital need at Rs. 1.8 lakh crore by FY19
* Current account deficit at 1-1.5%, forex reserves at $351.5 bn in mid-Feb.
* Services sector growth in 2015—16 seen at 9.2%
* Suggests revival of domestic demand as foreign capital outflow likely
* Sees good performance by industrial, infrastructure, corporate sectors due to recent reform
* More investment in health, education; focus on agriculture
* Government tax revenues to be higher than budgeted
* Exports slowdown to continue; pick up in next fiscal
* India should resist protectionist measures in trade
* Suggests reform package for fertiliser sector

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