RBI”s Financial Stability Report, July 2020

Reserve Bank released the 21st Issue of the Financial Stability Report (FSR) on 24th July 2020, which reflects the collective assessment of the Sub-Committee of the Financial Stability and Development Council (FSDC) on risks to financial stability, and the resilience of the financial system in the context of contemporaneous issues relating to development and regulation of the financial sector.

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das informed that governments, central banks and other public agencies across countries have made coordinated efforts to alleviate financial stress and build confidence. He added that “These policy responses have stabilised the financial system and markets, although the outlook remains highly uncertain.”

Mr Das said that once we enter the post-pandemic phase, the focus would be on the calibrated unwinding of regulatory and other dispensations. He also advised financial intermediaries to undertake a reappraisal of their business models. The governor said that asset markets have to adapt to a new normal in a non-disruptive manner.

He also said that in the period of social distancing, information technology platforms have worked well and these gains need to be consolidated. “There is no room for complacency on cyber security,” the Governor said.

• In response to COVID-19, a combination of fiscal, monetary and regulatory interventions on an unprecedented scale has ensured normal functioning of financial markets.
• The overleveraged non-financial sector, simmering global geopolitical tensions, and economic losses on account of the pandemic are major downside risks to global economic prospects.
• Actions undertaken by financial sector regulators and the Government to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 eased operational constraints and helped in maintaining market integrity and resilience in the face of severe risk aversion.
• Bank credit, which had considerably weakened during the first half of 2019-20, slid down further in the subsequent period with the moderation becoming broad-based across bank groups.
• The capital to risk-weighted assets ratio (CRAR) of Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs) edged down to 14.8 per cent in March 2020 from 15.0 per cent in September 2019 while their gross non-performing asset (GNPA) ratio declined to 8.5 per cent from 9.3 per cent and the provision coverage ratio (PCR) improved to 65.4 per cent from 61.6 per cent over this period.
• Macro stress tests for credit risk indicate that the GNPA ratio of all SCBs may increase from 8.5 per cent in March 2020 to 12.5 per cent by March 2021 under the baseline scenario; the ratio may escalate to 14.7 per cent under a very severely stressed scenario.
• If the stress is severe, the bad loans ratio could rise to 14.7 percent. Under this severe stress scenario, the banking system’s capital to risk-weighted assets ratio will drop to 11.8 percent and five banks may fail to meet minimum capital levels by March 2021, the FSR warns. Even under the baseline scenario, the CRAR will fall to 13.3 percent.
• Network analysis reveals that total bilateral exposures among entities in the financial system declined marginally during 2019-20; with the inter-bank market continuing to shrink and with better capitalisation of public sector banks (PSBs), there would be reduction in contagion losses to the banking system under various scenarios in relation to a year ago.
• Going forward, the major challenges include pandemic-proofing large sections of society, especially those that tend to get excluded in formal financial intermediation.

• "With the suspension of construction activities across the country from mid-March, completion of under-construction projects is likely to be delayed, constraining new demand," the FSR said. House sales and launches, which had declined by 16 per cent and 35 per cent (y-o-y) during the third quarter of FY20, were pulled down by around 26 per cent and 51 per cent respectively, during the fourth quarter, it added.

  Please click on the link for detailed report on Financial Stability Report: Financial Stability report July 2020

Source: rbi.org.in, India today, ET & Money Control